Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:45:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0F 0x0f18…c9fd sports 1166 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,965 (-2%) realized −$5,955 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%540W / 621L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$1,118est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$650now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$187
7 days+$1,055
14 days+$1,231
30 days−$994
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$10,069
other 17% +$2,765
world 0% −$530
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.3% -9.2% 47% 47% +9.8%
≤30d 85 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 51% -13.5%
≤90d 314 -5.5% -14.5% 47% 47% -9.9%
all 1161 -6.2% -15.2% 47% 46% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 46% -11.5%
10% -23.3% 44% -19.9%
15% -30.7% 41% -27.7%
20% -37.5% 36% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$282 vs −$258 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$650
Realized−$5,955
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses540 / 621
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,118
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1161 / 1166
History coverage214d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Under 65¢ 69¢ $378 $401 +$23 (+6%)
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 50¢ $142 $132 −$11 (-7%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Over 52¢ 44¢ $140 $117 −$23 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $694 +$187 +27%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 20 $530 −$523 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $170 −$167 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $395 +$409 +104%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $198 −$195 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $212 −$209 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $96 −$94 -98%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 18 $96 −$94 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Hijikata vs Lehecka Jun 18 $20 +$60 +294%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $236 −$232 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $683 +$521 +76%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $634 +$836 +132%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $169 −$166 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $375 +$253 +67%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $446 +$469 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $94 +$120 +129%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $203 +$189 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $266 +$121 +46%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1,036 −$1,030 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $650 +$370 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $703 +$110 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $371 +$271 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $593 +$143 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $367 −$361 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $146 −$144 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $441 +$380 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $355 −$350 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $189 +$372 +197%
Hapoel Jerusalem vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 09 $16 −$15 -98%
ITF Cuiaba: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Nick Hardt Jun 08 $101 +$26 +26%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 08 $96 +$72 +75%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $571 −$560 -98%
Lokomotiv Kuban vs. BC Zenit Jun 07 $10 −$9 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-9.5) Jun 06 $811 −$799 -98%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 06 $253 +$164 +65%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $106 +$74 +70%
Set 1 Winner: Arnaldi vs Cobolli Jun 05 $187 −$6 -3%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Ser Jun 05 $483 −$474 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 162.5 Jun 04 $64 −$63 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 163.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 04 $21 −$20 -98%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex Jun 04 $157 +$63 +40%
Dota 2: Team Slayers vs Ignite - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $92 −$1 -2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $92 +$35 +38%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 01 $441 −$431 -98%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Banger Gang (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 01 $94 −$92 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 01 $313 −$308 -98%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $65 −$64 -98%
CD Palestino vs. Audax CS Italiano: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $108 +$97 +90%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 01 $284 +$311 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $142 1h
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $144 4h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $382 5h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Juan Bautista Torres 79¢ $191 7h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Juan Bautista Torres 78¢ $503 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $169 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $2 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $24 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $334 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $170 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $24 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $61 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $310 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $198 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $212 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $198 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 68¢ $396 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $96 3d
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 44¢ $96 4d
Set 2 Winner: Hijikata vs Lehecka BUY Hijikata 24¢ $6 4d
Set 2 Winner: Hijikata vs Lehecka BUY Hijikata 27¢ $6 4d
Set 2 Winner: Hijikata vs Lehecka BUY Hijikata 24¢ $8 4d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 43¢ $95 4d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 44¢ $141 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $245 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $337 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $346 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $243 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $145 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $87 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $650.06 · official $650.12 (match) · 2839 history records