Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0F 0x0f16…d032 crypto 1232 markets active 4d ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,897 (+18%) realized +$2,897 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%649W / 583L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$69
14 days+$29
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,294
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 270 +7.7% -2.6% 49% 49% +1.2%
≤30d 818 -1.5% -10.9% 48% 48% -8.2%
≤90d 1232 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 48% -8.6%
all 1232 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 48% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 48% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 41% -17.3%
15% -25.5% 35% -25.3%
20% -32.8% 30% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,897
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses649 / 583
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1232 / 1232
History coverage79d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1232 Trades
no open positions (498 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$12 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$9 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$8 +212%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3205 history records