Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:06:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f14…ec62 politics 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$583per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$318est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$438
7 days−$380
14 days−$380
30 days−$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$178
politics 1% +$3
other 0% −$3
world 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -25.0% -32.2% 46% 38% -10.9%
≤30d 13 -25.0% -32.2% 46% 38% -10.9%
≤90d 14 -23.2% -30.5% 43% 36% -10.9%
all 44 -4.7% -13.8% 34% 23% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 23% -10.2%
10% -22.1% 14% -18.8%
15% -29.6% 7% -26.6%
20% -36.5% 5% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$525) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$307 vs −$228 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$318
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage226d
Avg bet$583
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $3,238 +$51 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $43 −$32 -74%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $4,002 −$1,755 -44%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $1,540 +$1,058 +69%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $1,348 −$493 -37%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $2,910 +$587 +20%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $14 −$13 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $5,739 +$1,761 +31%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $1,646 −$1,633 -99%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual Jun 26 $1,440 +$558 +39%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $529 −$525 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $993 −$321 -32%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $1,362 +$379 +28%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $34 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $45 +$6 +12%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $39 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $46 $0 -1%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $34 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Jan 31 $3 −$2 -56%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 31 $4 −$2 -49%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 31 $3 $0 -3%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $1 $0 -18%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jan 09 $1 $0 -27%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $1 $0 -16%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $1 $0 -12%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $1 $0 -7%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $1 $0 +22%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $6 +$2 +33%
Will Francesca Muñoz win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ximena Rincón win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Nov 17 $9 $0 +5%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Nov 16 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Nov 16 $3 $0 +6%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Nov 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Nov 14 $1,001 +$201 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 100¢ $2,152 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 100¢ $143 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 99¢ $994 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 14¢ $10 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 15¢ $15 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 97¢ $241 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 97¢ $48 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 15¢ $3 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 15¢ $25 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 98¢ $218 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 98¢ $2,731 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 38¢ $1,099 14h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 38¢ $3 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 38¢ $37 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 38¢ $1 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 37¢ $925 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Power Rangers 37¢ $182 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $2,238 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 65¢ $360 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 65¢ $371 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 65¢ $3 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 65¢ $166 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 65¢ $111 15h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 55¢ $440 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 55¢ $476 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 55¢ $12 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 55¢ $4 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 55¢ $609 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 67¢ $2,536 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 67¢ $7 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.88 · official $0.77 (match) · 467 history records