Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:43:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f0f…c8ae politics 245 markets active 0h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$789 (-0%) realized −$717 · open −$72
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate42%96W / 135L
Whale WR15%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,548per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$8,875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$212
14 days−$277
30 days−$282
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$431
culture 21% −$159
other 20% −$255
sports 13% −$71
economics 12% +$2
crypto 4% −$48
world 2% −$23
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% −$87
finance 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -5.4% -14.4% 27% 7% -9.9%
≤30d 51 -6.4% -15.3% 29% 6% -10.0%
≤90d 59 -7.1% -16.0% 34% 5% -10.0%
all 231 -1.1% -10.5% 42% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 8% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 15% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$8,875
Realized−$717
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses96 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)15%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)231 / 245
History coverage602d
Avg bet$2,548
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? A Jun 19 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,859 −$6 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $500 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,987 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5,093 −$35 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 18 $1,073 −$5 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $4,026 −$10 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $7,624 −$36 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $6,001 +$11 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $12,075 −$39 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $370 −$10 -3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4,977 −$9 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 15 $22 −$2 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $32 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $32 −$10 -31%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $52 −$3 -6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $48 −$3 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $52 −$5 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$3 -19%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 −$37 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $11 +$2 +18%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $504 −$12 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,877 −$5 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $48 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $50 −$19 -37%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $12 −$8 -68%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $19 −$10 -54%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $212 −$5 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 11 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $35 −$9 -27%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 11 $46 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $58 −$5 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $3,949 −$7 -0%
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? May 25 $7 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 April 27-May 3? May 25 $9 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 25 $13 +$1 +5%
World Cup: Winless Team? May 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? May 25 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $1,215 11m
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $2,013 17m
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $448 18m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $922 1h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 86¢ $697 1h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $1,115 1h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 81¢ $2,448 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $2,853 21h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,986 25h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $24 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $101 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 27h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 27h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 89¢ $585 27h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 27h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 27h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 89¢ $1 27h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 27h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 89¢ $19 27h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $88 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,874.94 · official $8,875.54 (match) · 1247 history records