Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f0c…ba73 other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,135 (-15%) realized −$4,127 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%30W / 47L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$337per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$453
7 days−$152
14 days−$129
30 days−$1,823
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$4,222
sports 4% −$120
weather 1% −$273
politics 0% −$96
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +8.7% -1.7% 44% 44% -15.8%
≤30d 23 -4.1% -13.2% 39% 39% -45.1%
≤90d 77 -10.7% -19.2% 39% 32% -25.4%
all 77 -10.7% -19.2% 39% 32% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 32% -25.4%
10% -27.0% 31% -32.5%
15% -34.0% 30% -39.0%
20% -40.5% 21% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$281 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized−$4,127
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses30 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage68d
Avg bet$337
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 12¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $305 −$300 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $111 +$46 +42%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $149 −$146 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$127 +246%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $141 +$68 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $118 −$115 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$98 -48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $153 +$231 +152%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$121 +235%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $154 +$386 +250%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $239 +$161 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $213 −$212 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$23 +219%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $834 −$823 -99%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $113 −$110 -97%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $308 −$300 -98%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $511 −$500 -98%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $501 +$239 +48%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $308 −$300 -97%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,018 −$505 -50%
Will Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? May 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $840 −$640 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 23? May 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? May 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17? May 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-17? May 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? May 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 23? May 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on April 23? May 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 16 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-11? May 16 $403 −$403 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? May 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? May 16 $600 −$539 -90%
Exact Score: Everton FC 0 - 0 Liverpool FC? May 16 $82 −$82 -100%
Exact Score: Everton FC 2 - 2 Liverpool FC? May 16 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 25? May 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 16 $306 −$306 -100%
Spread: Everton FC (-1.5) May 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 16 $307 −$307 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 16 $881 −$881 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 16 $1,256 −$1,256 -100%
Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $243 +$57 +24%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,512 −$1,372 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $103 54m
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 54m
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 55m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $157 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $149 36h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $111 36h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 46h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $178 46h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $141 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $118 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $143 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 75¢ $226 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $384 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $172 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $102 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $153 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $102 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $103 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $100 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $113 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.71 · official $291.71 (match) · 296 history records