Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f0c…2d3e sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-14%) realized −$13 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$9
crypto 24% −$7
other 14% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.7% -8.0% 45% 45% -21.9%
≤30d 11 +1.7% -8.0% 45% 45% -21.9%
≤90d 11 +1.7% -8.0% 45% 45% -21.9%
all 11 +1.7% -8.0% 45% 45% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 45% -21.9%
10% -16.8% 45% -29.3%
15% -24.8% 45% -36.2%
20% -32.2% 45% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs PlayTime 87¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 65¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Estar Backs 14¢ 6¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 16 $3 −$1 -21%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $12 +$9 +73%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.41 · official $27.41 (match) · 26 history records