Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f07…560e other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$246 (-0%) realized −$246 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%6W / 72L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$713per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$819now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$16
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$34
other 43% −$30
culture 4% −$3
tech 3% −$2
sports 3% −$75
world 2% −$121
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -4.0% -13.1% 9% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 78 -3.7% -12.9% 8% 5% -10.0%
all 78 -3.7% -12.9% 8% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 5% -10.0%
10% -21.2% 5% -18.6%
15% -28.8% 3% -26.4%
20% -35.8% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$787) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$819
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses6 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage76d
Avg bet$713
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $820 $819 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $568 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,041 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $803 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,929 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 04 $227 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 04 $293 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,832 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,215 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $455 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $674 −$1 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 19 $41 +$30 +73%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $595 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 15 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $712 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $1,473 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $648 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 12 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 12 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 11 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 09 $538 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $820 49m
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $748 53m
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $749 4h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $567 21h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $568 25h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $772 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $774 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $582 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $583 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $570 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $571 3d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $662 3d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $663 4d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $802 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $803 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $713 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $714 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $612 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $613 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $545 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $546 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $806 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $807 10d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $315 10d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $316 11d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $400 15d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $401 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $294 17d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $295 17d
Will Solana reach $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $227 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $819.10 · official $819.10 (match) · 230 history records