Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f07…1990 other 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$42
sports 21% −$17
politics 8% −$5
culture 8% −$8
economics 7% −$6
crypto 6% −$5
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 191 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 246 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)246 / 246
History coverage127d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 246 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $353 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $287 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $266 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $541 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $242 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $610 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $169 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $128 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $212 −$3 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $94 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $312 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $173 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $185 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $311 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $99 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $120 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $397 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $165 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $308 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $302 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 6h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $43 7h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $43 8h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $43 10h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $43 12h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 13h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 14h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 19h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 20h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 22h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 24h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 25h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 26h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $43 28h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $44 30h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $44 31h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $44 32h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $44 34h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $44 36h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $44 38h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $44 40h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $44 47h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $44 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1306 history records