Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0f07…ffc8 other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$32
politics 20% −$6
sports 6% +$41
economics 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 +1.3% -8.3% 11% 9% -9.5%
all 108 +1.3% -8.4% 11% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 9% -9.5%
10% -17.1% 9% -18.2%
15% -25.1% 8% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage91d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $252 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $313 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $118 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $352 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 23 $322 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 19 $276 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $259 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $269 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $285 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $288 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $284 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $568 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $285 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $292 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $292 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $280 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $263 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $290 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $287 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $265 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $268 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $268 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $290 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $838 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $269 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $560 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $280 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $289 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $487 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $281 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 12 $299 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 4h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 6d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 11d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 17d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 17d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 17d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $38 18d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 19d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $65 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 24d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $41 24d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $41 24d
Will Solana reach $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $118 25d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $276 29d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $276 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 317 history records