Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0f01…ed38 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43 (+5%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$35
sports 13% +$13
crypto 11% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +10.1% -0.4% 61% 33% -4.6%
≤30d 18 +10.1% -0.4% 61% 33% -4.6%
≤90d 18 +10.1% -0.4% 61% 33% -4.6%
all 18 +10.1% -0.4% 61% 33% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 33% -4.6%
10% -9.9% 28% -13.7%
15% -18.6% 28% -22.0%
20% -26.6% 22% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.48 per $1 lost it wins $5.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $160 +$5 +3%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -77%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +191%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $175 +$15 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 +$6 +12%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $160 +$2 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $95 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $150 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 36h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $190 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $70 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 95¢ $100 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $160 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 36¢ $0 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records