Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0F 0x0f00…73ce sports 9 markets active 12h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$367 (-19%) realized −$367 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$910
sports 27% +$460
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.6% +8.2% 33% 33% -30.7%
≤30d 9 +19.6% +8.2% 33% 33% -30.7%
≤90d 9 +19.6% +8.2% 33% 33% -30.7%
all 9 +19.6% +8.2% 33% 33% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 33% -30.7%
10% -2.2% 33% -37.4%
15% -11.6% 33% -43.4%
20% -20.3% 33% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$315 vs −$232 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$367
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage5d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $373 −$350 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $634 −$634 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $315 +$179 +57%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $106 +$158 +149%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $107 +$608 +570%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $107 12h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $107 31h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $107 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $210 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $106 37h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $264 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $106 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $106 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $265 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $107 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $263 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $105 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $267 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $105 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records