trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 13 | $44 | −$5 | -10% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $14 | −$5 | -39% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $17 | +$3 | +18% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 05 | $84 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 05 | $28 | −$3 | -12% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 04 | $83 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $49 | +$1 | +1% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev | Jun 02 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $21 | −$14 | -64% |
| Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 11 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 11 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? | Mar 11 | $36 | −$36 | -100% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 11 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? | Mar 10 | $70 | −$70 | -100% |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Feb 15 | $138 | +$19 | +14% |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | Dec 19 | $148 | −$148 | -100% |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? | Dec 18 | $202 | −$101 | -50% |
| GPT ads by December 31? | Dec 18 | $79 | +$5 | +6% |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Dec 08 | $75 | +$25 | +34% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | Dec 07 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Dec 07 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Manchester City vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Score | Dec 06 | $36 | +$4 | +11% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Dec 06 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -10.7% | -19.2% | 33% | 33% | -17.9% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -23.0% | -30.4% | 22% | 11% | -16.9% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -23.0% | -30.4% | 22% | 11% | -16.9% |
| all | 23 | -49.7% | -54.5% | 26% | 17% | -43.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -54.5% | 17% | -43.2% |
| 10% | -58.8% | 4% | -48.6% |
| 15% | -62.8% | 0% | -53.6% |
| 20% | -66.4% | 0% | -58.1% |