Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0efe…96f4 other 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$13
politics 30% −$9
sports 9% −$5
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 128 -1.6% -11.0% 8% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage128d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $155 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $146 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $114 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $293 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $545 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $153 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $283 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $423 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $273 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $144 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $131 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $128 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $159 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $151 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $121 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $123 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $115 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $131 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $160 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $267 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $160 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $287 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $117 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $124 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $150 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $152 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $159 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $285 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $148 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $144 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 26 $282 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $133 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? Apr 22 $160 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $294 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $172 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $447 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 20 $116 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $21 2h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $21 23h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $18 12d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 14d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $19 14d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $19 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 15d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 16d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $26 17d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $26 17d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $155 24d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $155 29d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $146 29d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $146 32d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $114 33d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $114 34d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $152 34d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $152 34d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $128 35d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $128 36d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $153 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 408 history records