Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0E 0x0ef7…db3a crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$950 (-6%) realized −$948 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%44W / 1L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$15
politics 31% −$968
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 45 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 0% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -15.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -23.7%
15% -26.2% 0% -31.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$968 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$2,570
Realized−$948
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses44 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage617d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,698 $1,695 −$3 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $874 $874 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $189 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $751 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,600 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $341 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,623 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $474 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $745 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,340 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $82 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $94 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 20 Feb 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025 Feb 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of November 202 Feb 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of November 202 Feb 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov Feb 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Feb 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Feb 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Feb 18 $104 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 580 and 599 times September 5–12? Nov 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Nov 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Nov 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in September? Nov 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Nov 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Nov 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in August? Nov 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? Nov 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septem Nov 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? Nov 18 $8 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Nov 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Nov 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Nov 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Nov 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $568 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $5,041 −$968 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $874 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,698 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $371 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $28 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $380 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $189 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,600 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,623 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $599 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $341 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,340 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $745 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $474 6d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $82 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $94 102d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? BUY No 99¢ $7 125d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $27 125d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $36 125d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $18 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $29 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $59 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $104 216d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $28 216d
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $10 216d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov BUY No 100¢ $8 216d
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5 216d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 216d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 216d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of November 20 BUY No 99¢ $2 216d
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of November 202 BUY No 99¢ $5 216d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,569.89 · official $2,569.89 (match) · 97 history records