Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0E 0x0ef6…b8e3 crypto 244 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$823 (-7%) realized −$819 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%69W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$261
14 days−$261
30 days−$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,031
other 3% −$279
weather 0% −$21
tech 0% −$10
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +17.1% +6.0% 25% 22% -32.4%
≤30d 60 +7.4% -2.9% 23% 20% -33.8%
≤90d 239 -9.8% -18.4% 29% 26% -22.5%
all 239 -9.8% -18.4% 29% 26% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 26% -22.5%
10% -26.2% 23% -29.9%
15% -33.3% 22% -36.7%
20% -39.9% 22% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$31 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$819
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses69 / 170
Open positions4
Markets (closed)239 / 244
History coverage88d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 28 $66 −$44 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $57 +$24 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$9 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$7 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$7 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? Jun 27 $8 −$7 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 27 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $17 −$6 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$15 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$21 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $102 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$154 +1449%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$20 +377%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$23 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$75 +471%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 27? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 100°F or higher on June 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 27? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or below on June 27? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or higher on June 27? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$12 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$23 +220%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 972 history records