Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ef5…6c38 world 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$119 (-4%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%25W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
other 21% $0
sports 15% −$117
politics 12% +$1
economics 6% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 20 -7.9% -16.7% 40% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 60 -2.7% -11.9% 37% 2% -9.5%
all 72 -4.7% -13.8% 35% 4% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 4% -13.7%
10% -22.1% 1% -21.9%
15% -29.6% 1% -29.5%
20% -36.5% 1% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses25 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage486d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 48¢ 48¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $145 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $41 −$2 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $84 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $96 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $58 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $7 +$1 +11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri May 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $40 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -9%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $110 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $6 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $81 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $67 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $7 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $39 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $10 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $25 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $18 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $18 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 43h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $13 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $12 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $41 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $40 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $37 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $37 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 10d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 10d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.89 · official $35.89 (match) · 275 history records