Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:41:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0E 0x0ef5…e92f sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$231 (+19%) realized +$137 · open +$94
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%34W / 57L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$27
14 days+$53
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$266
crypto 23% −$21
other 20% +$121
politics 10% −$20
tech 6% +$28
world 2% −$4
finance 1% −$1
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.8% -4.3% 44% 44% -1.6%
≤30d 27 +3.9% -6.0% 41% 41% -0.7%
≤90d 91 +60.4% +45.1% 37% 33% +23.5%
all 91 +60.4% +45.1% 37% 33% +23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.1% 33% +23.5%
10% +31.2% 29% +11.7%
15% +18.6% 27% +0.9%
20% +6.9% 27% -9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +120% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$6 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 57
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions19
Markets (closed)91 / 110
History coverage111d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists Yes 21¢ 100¢ $40 $190 +$150 (+377%)
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 29¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Minnesota Twins 23¢ 20¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-15%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 6.5 Corners Over 39¢ 24¢ $40 $24 −$16 (-39%)
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? No 25¢ 22¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No 22¢ 19¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat? No 44¢ 37¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-17%)
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-01 House seat? No 38¢ 23¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will XRP reach $2.80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 10¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 30¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-74%)
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat? No 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-49%)
SlingshotDAO FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 24¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-73%)
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31? Yes 44¢ 14¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-68%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 36¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+176%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? Yes 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $20 +$26 +132%
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 +$21 +105%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 20 $20 +$52 +254%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $19 +$4 +21%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $20 +$19 +93%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $20 +$34 +166%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$27 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $360? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +163%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$33 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$33 +159%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $10 +$17 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -94%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-31? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? May 30 $5 −$2 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 19 $5 $0 -9%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $5 $0 -9%
Will VOX (VOX) win 13-15 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election May 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$1 +19%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff May 14 $7 +$1 +13%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 13 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw May 12 $5 $0 -7%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw? May 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $5 −$1 -12%
AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat? May 07 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? May 04 $5 −$1 -16%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 4? May 04 $10 +$6 +66%
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? May 04 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? May 03 $14 −$1 -9%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 3? May 03 $3 +$2 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 1? May 02 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 2? May 02 $3 +$2 +89%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31? May 02 $3 −$1 -35%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 01 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 1? May 01 $3 +$2 +86%
Rockets vs. Lakers May 01 $10 −$3 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 23¢ $41 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 39¢ $41 10h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 21¢ $41 11h
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $41 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 28¢ $20 29h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 32h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY FURIA 42¢ $20 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 82¢ $19 44h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 33¢ $20 2d
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? BUY No 48¢ $20 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $20 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $20 3d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 3d
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? BUY No 25¢ $21 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 44¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner BUY DR Congo 37¢ $20 3d
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? BUY No 22¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $36 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down $15 5d
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 6d
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $360? BUY No 38¢ $20 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 9d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 42¢ $20 9d
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.59 · official $351.94 (match) · 238 history records