Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0E 0x0ef4…f90a crypto 1518 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 170d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,697 (-9%) realized −$1,648 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate78%1180W / 336L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$252est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,081
7 days−$3,730
14 days−$1,744
30 days−$1,744
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$1,698
crypto 23% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -66.8% -70.0% 16% 16% -38.4%
≤30d 51 -26.0% -33.1% 25% 25% -20.5%
≤90d 52 -21.2% -28.7% 27% 27% -19.9%
all 1516 +5.3% -4.7% 78% 51% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 51% -17.7%
10% -13.8% 32% -25.6%
15% -22.1% 3% -32.8%
20% -29.8% 1% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$26 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,648
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1180 / 336
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$252
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1516 / 1518
History coverage170d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 33¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 30 $399 +$53 +13%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $1,005 +$1,482 +147%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $206 −$206 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $194 −$194 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $195 +$258 +132%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams Jun 26 $7 +$11 +160%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $1,659 −$1,624 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $2,132 −$2,132 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $209 −$205 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $396 −$396 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2,040 +$1,960 +96%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $268 +$219 +82%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Jun 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $97 −$97 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $202 −$202 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $453 −$453 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $387 −$387 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $640 −$640 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $823 −$823 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $28 +$27 +97%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $39 +$68 +174%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2 +$28 +1116%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $593 +$1,295 +218%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $330 +$220 +67%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $535 −$535 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $353 +$313 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 47¢ $451 36m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $28 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $80 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $9 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $72 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $204 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $50 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Netherlands vs. Morocco: BUY 26¢ $37 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $151 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $351 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $420 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $206 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $16 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $163 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $8 6h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 6h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $26 31h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 31h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $26 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $36.27 · 3500 history records