Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ef3…b4db other 236 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%13W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$1
sports 23% −$4
politics 20% −$3
economics 10% −$2
crypto 8% −$2
world 7% −$1
culture 4% −$6
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 235 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses13 / 222
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage172d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $71 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 16 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 16 $34 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 15 $37 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 14 $34 −$1 -4%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $83 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 12 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 12 $67 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $75 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $90 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 10 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 10 $121 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $52 +$2 +3%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $34 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 06 $84 $0 -0%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $126 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $128 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $64 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $36 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $133 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $211 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 1h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 11d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 11d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $33 23d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $33 23d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $38 36d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $38 36d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $34 95d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 96d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $35 96d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $35 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? SELL No 97¢ $33 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $34 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 96d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $36 96d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $36 97d
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $38 97d
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $37 97d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL Yes 90¢ $33 97d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 94¢ $34 98d
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? SELL No 96¢ $38 98d
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? BUY No 97¢ $38 99d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $36 99d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $35 99d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $41 99d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $41 99d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? SELL No 98¢ $30 99d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 98¢ $30 100d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $33 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.09 · official $36.09 (match) · 855 history records