Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0E 0x0ef3…df7f sports 565 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,508 (-10%) realized −$3,493 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%172W / 390L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$339est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168
7 days+$48
14 days−$268
30 days−$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$2,932
other 10% −$776
crypto 1% −$92
politics 0% −$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -34.5% -40.7% 22% 21% -7.9%
≤30d 98 -40.4% -46.0% 20% 19% -17.4%
≤90d 253 -27.4% -34.3% 26% 25% -18.7%
all 562 -20.6% -28.2% 31% 30% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 30% -20.4%
10% -35.0% 28% -28.0%
15% -41.3% 26% -35.0%
20% -47.1% 23% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$40 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized−$3,493
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses172 / 390
Est. fees paid−$339
Open positions3
Markets (closed)562 / 565
History coverage246d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $352 $346 −$6 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Athletics 12¢ 8¢ $20 $12 −$7 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $71 −$25 -35%
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 28 $12 −$12 -97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $44 −$38 -87%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 27 $26 −$4 -14%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Nicolas Zanellato Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $117 +$41 +36%
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $164 −$26 -16%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys Jun 26 $56 −$33 -58%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $23 −$16 -70%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$44 +88%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$29 -56%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $148 +$330 +223%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 25 $36 +$84 +234%
Piracicaba: Wilson Leite vs Filipe Bullamah Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Madison Keys Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Kayla Day Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Claire Liu vs Elena Pridankina Jun 25 $21 +$30 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$9 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$86 +275%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 −$48 -93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $133 −$50 -37%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $51 −$35 -68%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $57 +$73 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 12¢ $21 41m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 35¢ $25 55m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets SELL Philadelphia Phillies 80¢ $97 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 37¢ $46 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $46 1h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 11¢ $12 6h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $409 8h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $5 23h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 4¢ $6 23h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 29¢ $44 24h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Houston Astros 18¢ $22 26h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 20¢ $26 26h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 30¢ $22 45h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 23¢ $26 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 2d
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Nicolas Zanellato BUY Nicolas Zanellato 8¢ $15 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Gabriela Ruse 18¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $53 2d
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 42¢ $58 2d
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 75¢ $158 2d
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Valerio Aboian 27¢ $59 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $58 2d
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Paulo Dos Santos 10¢ $26 2d
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Paulo Dos Santos 17¢ $1 2d
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes BUY Andres Santamarta 18¢ $26 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $53 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys BUY Petra Marcinko 14¢ $7 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka SELL Xinyu Wang 2¢ $7 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Xinyu Wang 6¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $406.64 · official $406.64 (match) · 1526 history records