Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0E 0x0ef2…d5c5 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$267 (-2%) realized −$267 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +254% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +196% what you keep after slip
Net edge+196%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$753per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$782
7 days+$797
14 days+$664
30 days+$664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$157
sports 25% +$507
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+220.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +306.5% +267.8% 77% 69% -16.1%
≤30d 15 +254.4% +220.7% 67% 60% -17.5%
≤90d 15 +254.4% +220.7% 67% 60% -17.5%
all 15 +254.4% +220.7% 67% 60% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +220.7% 60% -17.5%
10% +190.0% 47% -25.4%
15% +162.0% 27% -32.6%
20% +136.3% 20% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +254% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +494% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$280 vs −$427 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage9d
Avg bet$753
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,863 +$1,011 +54%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,436 +$436 +30%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $914 −$543 -59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,468 −$1,387 -94%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,008 +$330 +33%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,007 +$324 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,008 +$307 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,092 +$79 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,010 +$224 +22%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $109 +$47 +43%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $69 +$39 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $131 −$73 -56%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$69 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,854 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $44 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,819 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,862 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,436 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $371 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $81 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $914 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $355 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,012 7h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 23h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,337 23h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,008 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,332 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,315 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,008 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,007 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,171 29h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 29h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,234 29h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,092 29h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,006 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.23 · official $0.00 · 41 history records