Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ef2…8f95 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
other 24% +$1
politics 11% $0
sports 9% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.1% -9.5% 27% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 11 +0.1% -9.5% 27% 0% -8.9%
all 31 -1.8% -11.1% 19% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 3% -9.5%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage255d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $94 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $135 +$4 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $3 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 20 $4 −$2 -67%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $2 $0 +20%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $7 $0 -6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Oct 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awar Oct 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Oct 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 13 $23 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Oct 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $42 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $42 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $42 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $42 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $36 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $6 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $42 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $13 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $2 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $36 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $22 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $15 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $36 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $18 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $26 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records