Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:10:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0eef…dc37 crypto 333 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$3,332 (+6%) realized +$3,257 · open +$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +130% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +77% what you keep after slip
Net edge+77%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%306W / 332L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day99.7pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$676now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$953
7 days−$1,608
14 days+$2,502
30 days+$3,697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$119
sports 15% +$5,533
other 5% +$405
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+107.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 334 +218.5% +188.2% 44% 42% -21.9%
≤30d 606 +128.9% +107.1% 47% 43% -3.2%
≤90d 638 +129.5% +107.6% 48% 44% -2.5%
all 638 +129.5% +107.6% 48% 44% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +107.6% 44% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here +87.8% 40% -11.8%
15% +69.6% 34% -20.3%
20% +53.0% 29% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +129% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late +229% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$56 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$676
Realized+$3,257
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses306 / 332
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions5
Markets (closed)638 / 333
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$160
Trades / day99.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 638 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) France 37¢ 46¢ $200 $246 +$46 (+23%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 17¢ 24¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 53¢ 54¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 24¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 476 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$17 +531%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4PM ET Jun 26 $123 −$95 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$152 +2173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$18 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6AM ET Jun 26 $79 −$42 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET Jun 26 $38 −$2 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 11AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4PM ET Jun 26 $19 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 3PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$237 +1603%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET Jun 26 $35 +$13 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$9 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2AM ET Jun 26 $0 +$111 +54969%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$18 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1PM ET Jun 26 $69 −$80 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$27 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9PM ET Jun 26 $41 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8PM ET Jun 26 $96 −$82 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3PM ET Jun 26 $87 −$79 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$64 +476%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10AM ET Jun 26 $74 −$19 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8PM ET Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$22 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 9AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$77 +1196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$44 +5236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7PM ET Jun 26 $22 +$16 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6AM ET Jun 26 $45 +$37 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$37 +2227%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 6PM ET Jun 26 $13 −$11 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9PM ET Jun 26 $58 −$47 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9AM ET Jun 26 $74 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$18 -148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9PM ET Jun 26 $28 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET Jun 26 $34 +$15 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$13 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9AM ET Jun 26 $65 −$43 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8AM ET Jun 26 $42 −$11 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4AM ET Jun 26 $39 −$22 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$33 +538%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 5AM ET Jun 26 $22 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6AM ET Jun 26 $60 −$52 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3PM ET Jun 26 $46 −$15 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$5 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8AM ET Jun 26 $153 −$115 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8PM ET Jun 26 $75 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5AM ET Jun 26 $8 +$35 +464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5PM ET Jun 26 $88 −$75 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6PM ET Jun 26 $43 −$29 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $102 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 37¢ $204 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 17¢ $102 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $3 40h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $805 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 40h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 41h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 8¢ $154 2d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $201 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $74 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 5d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 5d
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $101 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $676.34 · official $680.14 (match) · 3500 history records