Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0E 0x0eee…b4d6 crypto 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%39W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$48
sports 16% −$36
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -8.1% -16.9% 47% 47% -7.1%
≤30d 83 -8.1% -16.9% 47% 47% -7.1%
≤90d 83 -8.1% -16.9% 47% 47% -7.1%
all 84 -9.2% -17.8% 46% 46% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 46% -8.0%
10% -25.7% 43% -16.8%
15% -32.9% 39% -24.8%
20% -39.5% 33% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses39 / 45
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage165d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 60¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$3 +29%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$6 -59%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$31 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 6h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 17h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 77¢ $10 17h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 53¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.67 · official $3.96 (match) · 153 history records