Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0eee…81bc crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$82
sports 26% +$62
tech 17% +$6
crypto 15% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.0% -30.4% 27% 27% -19.3%
≤30d 11 -23.0% -30.4% 27% 27% -19.3%
≤90d 11 -23.0% -30.4% 27% 27% -19.3%
all 11 -23.0% -30.4% 27% 27% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 27% -19.3%
10% -37.0% 18% -27.0%
15% -43.1% 18% -34.1%
20% -48.7% 9% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$15 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$38 -63%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$40 -40%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $59 +$42 +71%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$9 +18%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 15 $21 −$3 -16%
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$3 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $43 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $28 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $28 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $22 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $61 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $61 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 4h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $59 4h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 16h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E SELL Yes 25¢ $17 16h
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 16h
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 27h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 28¢ $21 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records