Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0eec…e587 weather 552 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,171 (-5%) realized −$2,219 · open +$48
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate72%396W / 152L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$239est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$781
14 days−$758
30 days−$1,077
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$778
weather 28% −$380
other 20% −$258
finance 11% −$857
world 10% +$122
crypto 1% −$221
politics 1% +$31
tech 0% −$37
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +58.7% +43.6% 50% 25% -67.9%
≤30d 39 +83.5% +66.0% 67% 26% -58.0%
≤90d 548 +13.9% +3.1% 72% 21% -14.7%
all 548 +13.9% +3.1% 72% 21% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.1% 21% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -6.8% 14% -22.8%
15% -15.8% 11% -30.3%
20% -24.1% 10% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$49 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized−$2,219
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses396 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$239
Open positions4
Markets (closed)548 / 552
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$78
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 548 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 65¢ 84¢ $89 $116 +$27 (+30%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 31¢ 41¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+30%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 10¢ 44¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+335%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $38 +$20 +54%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26 +$256 +999%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $0 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -78%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 10 $26 −$7 -25%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 07 $24 +$13 +57%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $98 $0 +0%
Will President Trump sign 8 or more pieces of legislation into law in Jun 02 $5 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$52 -100%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 31 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 29, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 28 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 27 $1 +$9 +900%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $5 $0 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $80 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 22? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $0 +$6 +14076%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 17? May 22 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ma May 22 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 17? May 22 $9 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 17? May 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 17? May 22 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 17? May 22 $36 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 17? May 22 $41 $0 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $43 +$11 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C or higher on May 17? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on May 17? May 17 $2 +$3 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 17? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 17? May 17 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 17? May 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $37 +$13 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on May 15? May 15 $34 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 15? May 15 $26 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 15 $73 +$11 +15%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 15 $80 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 14? May 15 $57 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 31¢ $26 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $0 36h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $14 36h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $24 36h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No $0 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No $1 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No $1 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $1,011 3d
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up $12 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $18 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $29 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.53 · official $263.13 (match) · 3500 history records