Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0E 0x0eea…726b crypto 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,354 (-1%) realized −$6,184 · open −$170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate69%137W / 61L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,565per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$8,909now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$2,712
14 days−$1,953
30 days−$2,316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$5,889
other 28% +$1,619
world 18% −$2,028
sports 1% −$533
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.3% -8.4% 58% 17% -20.2%
≤30d 30 -1.3% -10.7% 70% 7% -11.7%
≤90d 61 -0.2% -9.7% 67% 7% -11.4%
all 198 -4.2% -13.3% 69% 5% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 5% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 5% -19.2%
15% -29.2% 4% -27.0%
20% -36.1% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$4,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$348 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$8,909
Realized−$6,184
Unrealized−$170
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses137 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions6
Markets (closed)198 / 204
History coverage200d
Avg bet$2,565
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $2,274 $2,214 −$61 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? No 93¢ 90¢ $2,284 $2,213 −$71 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $1,942 $1,937 −$5 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,918 $1,923 +$5 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $360 $332 −$29 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $301 $291 −$10 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $394 +$13 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $393 −$74 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,221 +$112 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $961 +$39 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $86 −$53 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $150 +$34 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3,057 +$144 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3,439 +$261 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $1,287 −$323 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $3,411 −$1,040 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $8,604 −$1,902 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $63 +$76 +122%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $38 −$29 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $168 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $5,000 +$271 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $7,913 +$514 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7,500 +$312 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? May 30 $7,318 +$180 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $1,148 +$45 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $4,513 −$571 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 31? May 29 $4,334 +$163 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 27 $4,039 −$745 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $8,187 −$610 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $4,394 +$93 +2%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 24 $3,696 +$91 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? May 22 $8,268 +$309 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $2,917 +$181 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 20 $3,024 +$180 +6%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? May 17 $5,768 +$198 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $1,647 +$132 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 15 $2,380 +$60 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 12 $1,754 +$104 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $3,824 −$164 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 09 $10 +$3 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 09 $10 −$3 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? May 07 $29 +$15 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 07 $1,700 +$49 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? May 07 $1,701 +$50 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $1,820 +$59 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 04 $2,279 +$65 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 01 $83 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 01 $2,071 −$337 -16%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $12,423 −$1,077 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $2,395 +$66 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $2,394 +$121 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $4,412 −$247 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $2,434 +$155 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $133 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $171 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $174 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $1,946 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $318 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $1,924 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $332 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $47 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $14 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $94 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $137 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $278 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $44 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 92¢ $49 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 92¢ $29 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $34 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $13 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $14 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 94¢ $472 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 92¢ $14 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $29 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $50 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $16 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,908.67 · official $8,908.67 (match) · 1929 history records