Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:15:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0E 0x0ee9…f7ac sports 1308 markets active 1h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 201d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,237 (+9%) realized +$2,218 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%492W / 730L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$346
7 days−$60
14 days+$529
30 days+$680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$1,942
other 13% +$173
tech 9% −$13
finance 2% −$214
world 0% +$29
crypto 0% +$18
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -9.1% -17.7% 18% 18% -14.6%
≤30d 245 +5.7% -4.4% 28% 26% +0.8%
≤90d 500 +14.6% +3.7% 32% 30% +14.1%
all 1222 +13.1% +2.3% 40% 27% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 27% -3.2%
10% -7.5% 24% -12.5%
15% -16.4% 21% -21.0%
20% -24.6% 18% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized+$2,218
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses492 / 730
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1222 / 1308
History coverage201d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 89¢ 91¢ $173 $177 +$4 (+2%)
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? Yes 25¢ $3 $25 +$22 (+738%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $11 −$2 (-15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $9 −$3 (-26%)
Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? Yes $0 $3 +$3 (+745%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 10¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+59%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes $7 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+290%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on December 4? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Jun 26 $1 −$1 -110%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on December 5? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Cavaliers Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Cavaliers Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Warriors vs. Lakers Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-12.5) Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 230.5 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 26 $1 −$1 -114%
Rockets vs. Celtics Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns: O/U 223.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Wizards vs. Pacers Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Heat vs. Lakers Jun 26 $2 −$3 -187%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pistons Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 227.5 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Jun 26 $2 +$51 +3156%
Spread: Lakers (-1.5) Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Bucks Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 26 $1 +$2 +283%
76ers vs. Bulls Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-16.5) Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will HEROIC win The International 2025 Tournament? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Clippers vs. Lakers Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Nigma Galaxy win The International 2025 Tournament? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on No Jun 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5 Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Thunder Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Jazz vs. Knicks: O/U 242.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov Jun 26 $0 +$76 +18404%
Pelicans vs. Nuggets Jun 26 $0 $0 +100%
Mavericks vs. Rockets Jun 26 $2 −$1 -46%
Heat vs. Nuggets Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Celtics Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 98¢ $196 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 98¢ $224 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 97¢ $125 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 98¢ $119 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 95¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 97¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? BUY Yes $2 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? BUY Yes $0 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? BUY Yes $0 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? BUY Yes $2 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 United States? BUY Yes $1 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 United States? BUY Yes $2 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 United States? BUY Yes $1 3h
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes $1 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? BUY Yes $2 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? BUY Yes $4 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 20 BUY $3 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY 20¢ $11 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.44 · official $231.95 (match) · 3500 history records