Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ee7…dca8 crypto 251 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (202 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+1%) realized +$26 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate72%179W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day202.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (202 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -3.2% -12.4% 72% 69% -9.4%
≤30d 250 -3.2% -12.4% 72% 69% -9.4%
≤90d 250 -3.2% -12.4% 72% 69% -9.4%
all 250 -3.2% -12.4% 72% 69% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover202.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 69% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 40% -18.1%
15% -28.5% 21% -26.0%
20% -35.5% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses179 / 71
Open positions1
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day202.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 75¢ 48¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $11 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $9 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.13 · official $1.51 (match) · 553 history records