Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ee6…40ca other 205 markets active 1h ago coverage 361d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$123 (-0%) realized −$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%30W / 174L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 63% −$53
other 22% −$31
politics 9% −$15
finance 1% −$8
sports 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$4
tech 1% −$2
culture 1% −$5
world 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 20 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 204 -0.7% -10.1% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$600
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses30 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)204 / 205
History coverage361d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $600 $600 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $620 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 19 $624 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 19 $625 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $607 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Jun 16 $600 −$4 -1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $31 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $50 $0 -0%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 14? Apr 13 $459 −$6 -1%
Meta (META) Up or Down on April 14? Apr 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.75 Week of April 1 Apr 11 $1 $0 -14%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 10 $8 $0 +0%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 10 $110 $0 +0%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 10 $44 −$2 -4%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $10 $0 +0%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $0 $0 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 28 $630 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 19? Mar 19 $64 −$4 -6%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $498 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar Mar 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in March? Mar 16 $95 −$4 -5%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? Mar 11 $92 +$2 +2%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $92 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $92 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $93 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will China win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $93 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 09 $93 $0 -0%
Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 09 $93 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 26 $93 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $93 $0 -0%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Jan 15 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jan 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 05 $40 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $20 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 31 $93 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Passos Coelho win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $24 −$2 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $600 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $619 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $620 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $623 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $624 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $624 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $625 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $606 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $607 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $599 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $600 2d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 98¢ $596 2d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $600 20d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? SELL Up 66¢ $30 20d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? BUY Up 66¢ $24 20d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? BUY Up 66¢ $6 20d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 35d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 35d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 35d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 35d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 45d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 45d
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 14? SELL Up 50¢ $452 66d
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 14? BUY Up 51¢ $76 66d
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 14? BUY Up 51¢ $382 66d
Meta (META) Up or Down on April 14? SELL Down 50¢ $8 66d
Meta (META) Up or Down on April 14? BUY Down 50¢ $8 66d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.75 Week of April 1 SELL Yes 3¢ $1 69d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.75 Week of April 1 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 69d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.75 Week of April 1 BUY Yes 4¢ $1 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $599.70 · official $599.70 (match) · 586 history records