Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:32:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0ee6…09ee other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$20 (+13%) realized +$27 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$6
sports 48% +$15
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +21.1% +9.5% 60% 60% +13.3%
≤30d 10 +21.1% +9.5% 60% 60% +13.3%
≤90d 10 +21.1% +9.5% 60% 60% +13.3%
all 10 +21.1% +9.5% 60% 60% +13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.5% 60% +13.3%
10% -0.9% 60% +2.4%
15% -10.5% 60% -7.5%
20% -19.3% 60% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$27
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 20¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$5 +79%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $16 +$16 +97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +94%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +55%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 +$15 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $15 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 18h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 21h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026- BUY 57¢ $15 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $11 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $6 24h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $32 25h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $6 27h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $10 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 48¢ $10 47h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 51¢ $10 2d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 2d
Switzerland to win the second half? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $7 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.63 · official $7.63 (match) · 23 history records