Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ee5…e798 sports 919 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,722 (-2%) realized −$3,930 · open +$208
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%239W / 721L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day54.9pace
Fees−$3,472est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$7,508
other 0% +$12
economics 0% −$34
crypto 0% −$10
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -49.4% -54.2% 18% 18% -9.6%
≤30d 592 -17.2% -25.1% 27% 27% -4.2%
≤90d 960 -30.0% -36.6% 25% 24% -17.1%
all 960 -30.0% -36.6% 25% 24% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.6% 24% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -42.7% 23% -25.0%
15% -48.2% 22% -32.2%
20% -53.3% 20% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -47% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$308 vs −$122 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$1,582
Realized−$3,930
Unrealized+$208
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses239 / 721
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$3,472
Open positions3
Markets (closed)960 / 919
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$235
Trades / day54.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 960 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 78¢ 100¢ $760 $974 +$214 (+28%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 48¢ 48¢ $582 $588 +$6 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 52¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $0 $0 -781%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs NAVI Junior - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition - Game 4 Winne Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Dota 2: Astini+5 vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In G Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Brute - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs NAVI Junior - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Evil Geniuses - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $389 −$389 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $249 −$249 -100%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Grou Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $221 −$221 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $374 −$374 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $141 −$141 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MINLATE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qu Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs 1win - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Jazz vs. Pacers Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ENCE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 15 $470 −$470 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs MOUZ (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $35 −$38 -110%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 15 $141 −$141 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $176 −$176 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Heroic (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $286 6m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $6 18m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $20 30m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $305 52m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 100¢ $986 53m
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $765 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 5¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 5¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 5¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 79¢ $785 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 100¢ $1,691 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 27¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 78¢ $886 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 78¢ $443 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 7¢ $3 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 32¢ $31 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 35¢ $1 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 36¢ $10 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $330 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $106 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $539 5h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 11¢ $1 6h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 13¢ $3 6h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 65¢ $354 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $20 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 21¢ $5 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $10 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $151 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 42¢ $113 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,582.28 · official $1,577.90 (match) · 3500 history records