Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ee4…74be other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
other 33% +$1
politics 9% −$1
crypto 5% $0
weather 2% −$2
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 42% 8% -9.7%
≤90d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 42% 8% -9.7%
all 41 -1.5% -10.9% 44% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 5% -10.0%
10% -19.4% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage453d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $12 +$2 +19%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $30 −$3 -9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $62 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $39 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 20–27? Jun 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 13–20? Jun 17 $9 $0 -2%
Will Marian Vanghelie be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 13–20? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$2 -15%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $9 $0 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 18 $19 $0 +1%
Will 'Sinners' gross between $32-37m on opening weekend? Apr 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $34 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $30 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $30 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $31 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $23 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $1 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $6 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $4 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $10 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $8 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $4 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $31 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $31 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $27 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $27 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $28 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $17 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $13 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $14 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $30 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $30 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $5 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.19 · official $34.19 (match) · 114 history records