Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ee1…4b99 other 259 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 248L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$34
sports 25% −$26
politics 9% −$9
culture 7% −$9
economics 7% −$6
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$4
finance 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)258 / 259
History coverage138d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $209 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $749 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $400 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $594 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $146 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $266 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $394 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $557 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $459 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $201 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $486 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $887 −$2 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $615 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $162 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $657 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $537 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $620 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $397 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $279 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $272 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $489 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $261 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $166 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 02 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $138 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 1h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 3h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $57 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 7h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 9h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 11h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 18h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 21h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 22h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 26h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 27h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 28h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 31h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 32h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 34h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 35h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 37h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 39h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 40h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 42h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 43h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 45h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 46h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $58 47h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.78 · official $56.78 (match) · 1431 history records