Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ede…3db9 crypto 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-6%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 334d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$49
crypto 19% +$27
politics 10% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.7% -7.0% 60% 53% -15.4%
≤30d 15 +2.7% -7.0% 60% 53% -15.4%
≤90d 15 +2.7% -7.0% 60% 53% -15.4%
all 16 -3.7% -12.9% 56% 50% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 50% -23.5%
10% -21.2% 38% -30.8%
15% -28.8% 38% -37.5%
20% -35.8% 25% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage334d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $40 −$4 -9%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $90 −$27 -29%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$39 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $12 +$18 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$8 +15%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 +$13 +51%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL No 60¢ $37 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 60¢ $64 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL 15¢ $12 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records