Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0eda…4fae other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$17
politics 27% −$13
sports 11% +$36
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 113 +0.8% -8.8% 11% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 6% -9.5%
10% -17.5% 6% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 6% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×8.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage136d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $376 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $670 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $249 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $134 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $217 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $228 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $308 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $764 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $277 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $214 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $898 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $299 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $219 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $260 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $256 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $232 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? May 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 in April? May 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $316 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $316 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $244 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 17 $232 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $256 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $248 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $219 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $319 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 13 $265 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $307 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 12 $265 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $311 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $277 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $307 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 3h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 12h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 2d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 8d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i SELL No 100¢ $32 9d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i BUY No 100¢ $32 18d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 22d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 22d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 22d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 22d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 23d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 23d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 24d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 26d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 26d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 27d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $271 27d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $271 28d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $308 28d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $308 28d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $277 29d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $277 29d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $277 30d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $277 33d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $214 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 356 history records