Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0ed3…7ad4 tech 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy tech specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized −$116 · open +$145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%46W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days−$35
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 86% +$35
sports 6% −$35
other 4% +$8
politics 3% +$6
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +89.0% +71.0% 100% 100% +71.2%
≤30d 69 -12.5% -20.8% 38% 33% -5.5%
≤90d 115 -14.6% -22.7% 40% 37% -14.0%
all 115 -14.6% -22.7% 40% 37% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 37% -14.0%
10% -30.1% 28% -22.2%
15% -36.9% 27% -29.7%
20% -43.1% 20% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$15 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$145
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses46 / 69
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)115 / 120
History coverage89d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 9¢ 21¢ $103 $240 +$137 (+133%)
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 Yes 36¢ 45¢ $100 $127 +$27 (+27%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in June? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $17 $7 −$10 (-58%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 28¢ $16 $7 −$9 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $21 +$22 +106%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$15 +72%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $16 $0 +2%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 1 above $430? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425-$430 on the final day of trading of th Jun 05 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $15 +$1 +7%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 04 $22 +$2 +11%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 1? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 1? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 04 $36 −$12 -33%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 03 $35 +$7 +19%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 03 $37 −$2 -7%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 +$8 +76%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 −$7 -71%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $19 +$7 +37%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $17 +$4 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $15 −$8 -56%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $15 +$14 +92%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? May 31 $31 −$5 -15%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $11 +$2 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $8 −$1 -18%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on May 28? May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $427.50 Week of May 18 2026? May 30 $19 −$10 -54%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 22? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 on May 28? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on May 27? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $420-$425 on the final day of trading of th May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 25 above $440? May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $435-$440 on the final day of trading of th May 29 $24 +$85 +354%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $430-$435 on the final day of trading of th May 29 $15 −$6 -42%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 25 above $450? May 28 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 28 $175 +$72 +41%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 on May 27? May 27 $5 +$10 +187%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May? May 27 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in May? May 27 $23 −$16 -70%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31? May 23 $31 +$61 +198%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 22 $17 +$2 +10%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425-$430 on the final day of trading of th May 22 $29 +$40 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $16 59m
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $42 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 90¢ $35 1h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 51¢ $20 2d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $17 8d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 75¢ $16 8d
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 1 above $430? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425-$430 on the final day of trading of th SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of June 1 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 72¢ $16 10d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 3¢ $17 10d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425-$430 on the final day of trading of th BUY Yes 25¢ $9 10d
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 1 above $430? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Marta Kostyuk 18¢ $5 11d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 49¢ $17 11d
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY Yes 36¢ $103 11d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 3? BUY Up 47¢ $7 12d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 on June 4? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 12d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 3? SELL Up 49¢ $8 12d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 3? BUY Up 30¢ $5 12d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 3? SELL Up 90¢ $17 12d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 3? BUY Up 53¢ $10 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 25¢ $5 12d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 3? SELL No 24¢ $4 12d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 3? BUY No 58¢ $10 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 51¢ $10 12d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima SELL Yes 93¢ $42 12d
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima BUY Yes 77¢ $35 12d
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele SELL Yes 76¢ $35 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.98 · official $383.68 · 312 history records