Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:27:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0E 0x0ed1…efcb sports 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$68 (+1%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%73W / 84L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$91
world 5% −$7
crypto 4% −$26
other 1% −$19
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -41.5% -47.0% 38% 25% -23.4%
≤30d 26 -26.6% -33.6% 46% 27% -11.8%
≤90d 26 -26.6% -33.6% 46% 27% -11.8%
all 157 -8.5% -17.2% 46% 42% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 42% -8.8%
10% -25.2% 41% -17.5%
15% -32.4% 34% -25.5%
20% -39.0% 27% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$26 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses73 / 84
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage161d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $141 −$26 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $58 +$50 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 30 $36 −$35 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $40 −$9 -23%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 30 $34 +$1 +2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 May 30 $24 −$24 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $33 +$31 +91%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $20 +$13 +66%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $19 +$1 +3%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $14 −$14 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $16 −$16 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $39 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $10 +$10 +100%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $27 +$9 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $15 $0 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $122 +$79 +65%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 May 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 May 23 $18 −$17 -99%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Play-In G Jan 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 114.5 Jan 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Bulls vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5 Jan 23 $158 +$114 +72%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 Jan 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Rockets vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 107.5 Jan 23 $201 +$157 +78%
Raptors vs. Kings: O/U 222.5 Jan 22 $101 +$42 +42%
Thunder vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 109.5 Jan 22 $171 +$130 +76%
Hawks vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 122.5 Jan 22 $150 +$121 +81%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 114.5 Jan 21 $132 −$132 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs KOLESIE (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Jan 21 $100 −$19 -19%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs BIG Academy (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qua Jan 21 $63 −$12 -20%
FC Bayern München vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: O/U 2.5 Jan 21 $100 +$64 +64%
Galatasaray SK vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Jan 21 $77 +$23 +30%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs ODDIK (BO3) - IEM Rio: Americas Closed Quali Jan 21 $100 −$23 -23%
Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Jan 21 $50 +$27 +54%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GenOne (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Jan 21 $51 −$28 -56%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Clo Jan 21 $55 −$4 -7%
Lakers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 117.5 Jan 21 $66 +$61 +92%
Raptors vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 109.5 Jan 21 $71 +$58 +82%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 116.5 Jan 21 $75 +$62 +83%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Flyers vs. Golden Knights Jan 20 $12 −$8 -64%
Spread: Indiana (-7.5) Jan 20 $10 +$2 +22%
Celtics vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 114.5 Jan 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $14 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 345 history records