Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0E 0x0ecf…c7b8 crypto 1960 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$2,313 (-38%) realized −$2,316 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +95% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%692W / 1134L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day112.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,082
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+76.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 517 +309.6% +270.6% 50% 50% -20.3%
≤30d 1826 +94.9% +76.4% 38% 38% -10.7%
≤90d 1826 +94.9% +76.4% 38% 38% -10.7%
all 1826 +94.9% +76.4% 38% 38% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +76.4% 38% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here +59.5% 38% -19.3%
15% +44.1% 37% -27.1%
20% +30.0% 36% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +95% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +232% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$2,316
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses692 / 1134
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1826 / 1960
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day112.0
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1826 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 51¢ 78¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $8 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.71 · official $4.17 · 3500 history records