Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ecf…5bf4 sports 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$44 (+16%) realized +$45 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%47W / 39L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$4
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$1
weather 30% −$8
crypto 30% +$44
other 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +4.4% -5.5% 52% 46% -5.2%
≤30d 75 -1.1% -10.5% 51% 44% -9.0%
≤90d 86 -1.7% -11.1% 55% 41% +3.1%
all 86 -1.7% -11.1% 55% 41% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 41% +3.1%
10% -19.6% 38% -6.7%
15% -27.3% 35% -15.8%
20% -34.5% 30% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses47 / 39
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)86 / 95
History coverage68d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 48¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 44¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 43¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs HOTU 41¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Cloud Rising 45¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Cloud Rising 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $2 $0 -15%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +146%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $2 $0 -20%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +146%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -26%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $1 +$1 +140%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 $0 -19%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +37%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +61%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $1 22m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 44¢ $1 22m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 45¢ $1 57m
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 41¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 33¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 45¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 48¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 46¢ $1 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 42¢ $1 10h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 43¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 26¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $1 12h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 12h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 80¢ $1 12h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 46¢ $1 13h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 42¢ $1 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 28¢ $1 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 38¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $1 19h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 42¢ $1 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 20h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 46¢ $1 20h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 62¢ $1 20h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Game Master 48¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY TDK 51¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.92 · official $9.92 (match) · 180 history records