Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:24:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0E 0x0eca…3898 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate82%28W / 6L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day67.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +22.6% +11.0% 82% 29% -5.1%
≤30d 34 +22.6% +11.0% 82% 29% -5.1%
≤90d 34 +22.6% +11.0% 82% 29% -5.1%
all 34 +22.6% +11.0% 82% 29% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.0% 29% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here +0.3% 15% -14.2%
15% -9.4% 12% -22.5%
20% -18.2% 12% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.34 per $1 lost it wins $14.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses28 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day67.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 42¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $61 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $61 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $61 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 23 $61 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $42 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $33 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $34 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $60 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $60 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $60 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $60 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $60 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $60 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $60 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $60 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $60 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.89 · official $0.87 (match) · 113 history records