Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0E 0x0ec9…739b crypto 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate43%75W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$3
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$13
other 25% −$11
sports 10% −$11
weather 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -0.3% -9.8% 56% 24% -9.2%
≤30d 176 -14.6% -22.7% 43% 22% -10.1%
≤90d 176 -14.6% -22.7% 43% 22% -10.1%
all 176 -14.6% -22.7% 43% 22% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.7% 22% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 14% -18.7%
15% -36.9% 7% -26.6%
20% -43.1% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses75 / 101
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)176 / 176
History coverage13d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 176 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 $0 -25%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -30%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $2 $0 -6%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $19 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $24 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $18 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $34 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$25 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $104 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $45 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $58 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $47 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $61 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 541 history records