Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0E 0x0ec7…93d1 sports 635 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$75 (+2%) realized +$104 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate52%325W / 298L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day62.9pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$15
14 days−$146
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 237 -10.9% -19.4% 50% 34% -10.2%
≤30d 623 -7.0% -15.9% 52% 37% -9.0%
≤90d 623 -7.0% -15.9% 52% 37% -9.0%
all 623 -7.0% -15.9% 52% 37% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 37% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 27% -17.7%
15% -31.3% 21% -25.6%
20% -38.0% 15% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$104
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses325 / 298
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions12
Markets (closed)623 / 635
History coverage19d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day62.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 623 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Matias Soto 68¢ 90¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+32%)
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Billy Harris 73¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+37%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 44¢ 100¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+127%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Talia Gibson 70¢ 46¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-34%)
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Yihan Qu Yushan Shao 76¢ 92¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+21%)
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Nick Hardt 34¢ 68¢ $3 $7 +$3 (+99%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Qinwen Zheng 40¢ 54¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Joaquin Aguilar 44¢ 46¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Mattia Bellucci 45¢ 46¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Zhizhen Zhang 43¢ 44¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 36¢ 38¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Thiago Seyboth Wild 34¢ 32¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Miriam Bulgaru 37¢ 30¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Santiago De La Fuente 34¢ 10¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-70%)
Poznan (Doubles): Berkieta/Kasnikowski vs Kielan/Romios Kielan/Romios 82¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Arthur Gea 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $5 +$5 +108%
ITF Tauste: Chelsea Fontenel vs Meritxell Teixido Garcia Jun 17 $4 +$6 +146%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $13 −$3 -25%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $9 +$1 +15%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Anna Kubareva Jun 17 $9 +$1 +17%
ITF Blois: Clara Burel vs Despina Papamichail Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
ITF Ystad: Lucia Cortez Llorca vs Valentina Ivanov Jun 17 $8 +$2 +24%
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Loes Ebeling Koning Jun 17 $9 +$3 +35%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
ITF Blois: Jenny Lim vs Sofya Lansere Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $3 +$7 +206%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $8 +$2 +22%
Set 1 Winner: Yastremska vs Maria Jun 17 $6 +$4 +73%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Mina Hodzic Jun 17 $8 +$2 +31%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $13 −$3 -24%
ITF Mohammedia: Anna Shkutova vs Saumya Ronde Jun 17 $14 +$2 +13%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $14 +$6 +46%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $8 +$2 +22%
ITF Ystad: Gina Marie Dittmann vs Lucie Petruzelova Jun 17 $8 +$4 +54%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $9 −$3 -39%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $11 −$1 -5%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Jun 17 $13 −$3 -20%
ITF Ystad: Matylda Burylo vs Emina Honic Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
ITF Ystad: Valentina Steiner vs Eva Bennemann Jun 17 $12 −$2 -15%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Mohammedia: Oceane Babel vs Martina Colmegna Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $6 +$4 +55%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery Jun 17 $6 +$4 +64%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Jovic/Kessler vs Dabrowski/Stefani Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Guimaraes: Ariana Arseneault vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Tauste: Laia Petretic vs Chelsea Fontenel Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Bellucci vs Fritz Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Mohammedia: Yasmine Kabbaj vs Luna Vujovic Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Elena Rybakina vs. Tatjana Maria: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Bonzi vs Minaur Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open (Doubles): Pavlasek/Rikl vs Bergs/Rinderknech Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Lucie Havlickova vs Caijsa Hennemann Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Zhizhen Zhang vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Diallo/Hurkacz Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Perricard vs Bublik Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 76¢ $8 10m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 34¢ $3 14m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Santiago De La Fuente 32¢ $3 16m
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Yihan Qu BUY Yushan Shao 76¢ $7 31m
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 36¢ $4 37m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 71¢ $7 38m
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 34¢ $3 39m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 65¢ $7 41m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Santiago De La Fuente 35¢ $4 41m
ITF Tauste: Yushan Shao vs Yihan Qu BUY Yushan Shao 69¢ $0 41m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 65¢ $6 42m
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 46¢ $5 55m
ITF Blois: Clara Burel vs Despina Papamichail BUY Clara Burel 50¢ $5 56m
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 14¢ $1 1h
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Juan Manuel La Serna 82¢ $8 1h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 40¢ $4 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 77¢ $8 1h
ITF Blois: Clara Burel vs Despina Papamichail BUY Clara Burel 76¢ $4 1h
ITF Blois: Clara Burel vs Despina Papamichail BUY Clara Burel 76¢ $4 1h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 43¢ $4 1h
Poznan (Doubles): Berkieta/Kasnikowski vs Kielan/Romios BUY Kielan/Romios 82¢ $8 1h
Poznan (Doubles): Berkieta/Kasnikowski vs Kielan/Romios BUY Kielan/Romios 82¢ $8 1h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Joaquin Aguilar 44¢ $4 1h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 34¢ $3 2h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Billy Harris 73¢ $7 2h
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Loes Ebeling Koning BUY Loes Ebeling Koning 36¢ $2 2h
ITF Ystad: Gergana Topalova vs Loes Ebeling Koning BUY Loes Ebeling Koning 36¢ $2 2h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 85¢ $9 2h
ITF Tauste: Chelsea Fontenel vs Meritxell Teixido Garcia BUY Meritxell Teixido Garcia 40¢ $4 2h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 48¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.64 · official $93.64 (match) · 1814 history records