Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:27:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0ebe…0b09 world 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate31%31W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$4
other 17% −$14
politics 9% −$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 30 -0.9% -10.3% 20% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 41 -1.1% -10.6% 29% 2% -9.7%
all 99 -1.0% -10.4% 31% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 1% -9.9%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses31 / 68
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage295d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $133 −$2 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $194 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $79 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $36 +$2 +5%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $168 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $68 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $89 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $170 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $94 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $85 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $3 −$1 -33%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $83 −$2 -2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $88 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $88 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $76 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $99 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $200 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $89 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $1 $0 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $98 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $98 −$9 -10%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $253 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $172 +$5 +3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $92 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $91 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $1 $0 -16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $93 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $102 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $93 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $29 −$14 -48%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $97 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $20 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $48 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $97 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $97 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $78 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $79 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $38 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 36h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $30 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $57 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $86 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $86 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $10 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $97 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $78 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $85 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $82 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $82 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $68 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.10 · official $97.10 (match) · 349 history records