Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0E 0x0ebc…6bfd other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,078 (+3%) realized +$933 · open +$145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate73%33W / 12L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$847per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$3,045now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$472
7 days+$245
14 days+$245
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$1,006
sports 11% +$341
crypto 5% −$153
politics 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -4.3% -13.4% 68% 35% -7.4%
≤30d 31 -4.3% -13.4% 68% 35% -7.4%
≤90d 32 -7.3% -16.1% 66% 34% -7.7%
all 45 -5.1% -14.2% 73% 31% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 31% -6.0%
10% -22.4% 18% -15.0%
15% -29.9% 11% -23.2%
20% -36.7% 4% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$190 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$3,045
Realized+$933
Unrealized+$145
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses33 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage297d
Avg bet$847
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 96¢ 99¢ $2,200 $2,272 +$72 (+3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $700 $773 +$73 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,502 +$79 +3%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,404 +$130 +9%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $252 −$245 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$55 +27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $701 +$43 +6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,201 +$21 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $802 −$800 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$34 +17%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,001 +$33 +3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,604 +$128 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,702 +$78 +3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $600 −$29 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,505 −$541 -36%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,409 +$370 +15%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,215 +$61 +5%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $504 +$78 +15%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,704 +$145 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 −$176 -87%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $803 +$146 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $606 +$302 +50%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 −$2 -1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $504 +$119 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $305 −$160 -52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4,305 +$160 +4%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $294 +$172 +59%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$93 +92%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $903 +$132 +15%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Jun 11 $72 +$28 +39%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Apr 04 $100 −$100 -100%
T20 World Cup: South Africa vs UAE (Game 1) Mar 08 $300 +$19 +6%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Pakistan (Game 1) Mar 08 $2,090 +$208 +10%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Feb 17 $1,000 +$429 +43%
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? Dec 09 $500 +$119 +24%
Plasma >$1B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Dec 09 $1,000 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin above $106K on August 27? Sep 10 $200 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin above $112K on August 27? Sep 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin above $108K on August 27? Sep 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum above $4000 on August 27? Sep 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4100 and $4200 on August 25? Aug 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $215 on August 18–24? Aug 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin above $120K on August 25? Aug 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 August 18–24? Aug 26 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $1,201 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $401 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $302 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $1,002 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $400 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $500 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 96¢ $901 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 95¢ $501 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $401 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $201 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $201 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 78¢ $101 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $701 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $1,201 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $601 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $1,001 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $602 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,200 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $700 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,045.07 · official $3,045.07 (match) · 160 history records