Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:36:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0E 0x0eb8…56ec sports 340 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$797 (+4%) realized +$762 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%177W / 155L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days−$788
14 days−$445
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$705
other 15% −$267
crypto 5% +$127
world 1% +$9
finance 0% +$126
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -33.6% -39.9% 32% 32% -42.5%
≤30d 92 +12.1% +1.4% 48% 47% -6.7%
≤90d 97 +9.3% -1.1% 47% 46% -15.5%
all 332 +6.5% -3.7% 53% 52% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 52% -6.3%
10% -12.9% 48% -15.2%
15% -21.3% 43% -23.4%
20% -29.0% 35% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$42 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$399
Realized+$762
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses177 / 155
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions8
Markets (closed)332 / 340
History coverage129d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 332 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $105 $154 +$49 (+46%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $104 $146 +$42 (+41%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $48 $17 −$31 (-64%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 37¢ 36¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 33¢ 30¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $23 +$63 +272%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$4 +28%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$35 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$15 +49%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 17 $177 −$177 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $177 +$89 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $7 6h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $10 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $10 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $15 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 33h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $76 33h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $108 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 2d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $25 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.68 · official $398.68 (match) · 913 history records