Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0eb7…b7bf sports 21 markets active 3d ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15 (-24%) realized −$8 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$9
sports 29% +$6
crypto 18% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -19.8% -27.5% 29% 29% -20.0%
≤30d 14 -19.8% -27.5% 29% 29% -20.0%
≤90d 14 -19.8% -27.5% 29% 29% -20.0%
all 14 -19.8% -27.5% 29% 29% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 29% -20.0%
10% -34.4% 21% -27.7%
15% -40.7% 21% -34.7%
20% -46.5% 21% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-20%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +119%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +255%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY 26¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a dra BUY 6¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 33¢ $4 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $3 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL 98¢ $7 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY 27¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 4d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY No 48¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic vs. Czechi BUY 25¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.11 · official $16.11 (match) · 38 history records