Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0eb7…1f17 sports 895 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 125d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$176,044 (-3%) realized −$172,375 · open −$3,669
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%353W / 598L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,266per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$70,470est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,441
7 days−$30,572
14 days−$29,607
30 days−$37,943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$209,650
other 2% −$31,382
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -63.5% -67.0% 19% 19% -47.0%
≤30d 194 -42.6% -48.1% 29% 29% -27.6%
≤90d 706 -25.0% -32.1% 34% 32% -15.9%
all 951 -17.5% -25.3% 37% 35% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 35% -13.2%
10% -32.5% 32% -21.5%
15% ← realistic here -39.0% 27% -29.1%
20% -45.0% 21% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$5,902) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4,260 vs −$2,919 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$172,375
Unrealized−$3,669
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses353 / 598
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$70,470
Open positions2
Markets (closed)951 / 895
History coverage125d ⚠
Avg bet$6,266
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 951 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) Atlanta Dream 59¢ 0¢ $2,672 $2 −$2,670 (-100%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm Atlanta Dream 66¢ 0¢ $1,000 $1 −$999 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 212 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
AHL: Texas Stars vs. Milwaukee Admirals Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
North Texas Mean Green vs. Temple Owls Jun 28 $218 −$218 -100%
South Dakota Coyotes vs. Denver Pioneers Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Cleveland Monsters Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Green Bay Phoenix vs. Oakland Golden Grizzlies Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Drexel Dragons vs. Northeastern Huskies Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Grand Rapids Griffins Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Xavier Musketeers vs. Butler Bulldogs Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona Wildcats Jun 28 $471 −$471 -100%
Sacred Heart Pioneers vs. Fairfield Stags Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Marist Red Foxes vs. Manhattan Jaspers Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Penn Quakers vs. Yale Bulldogs Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
West Georgia Wolves vs. Queens (NC) Royals Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Boise State Broncos vs. Utah State Aggies Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Delaware State Hornets vs. Morgan State Bears Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Wagner Seahawks vs. St. Francis (PA) Red Flash Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Buffalo Bulls vs. Massachusetts Minutemen Jun 28 $340 −$340 -100%
Princeton Tigers vs. Brown Bears Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Samford Bulldogs vs. East Tennessee State Buccaneers Jun 28 $178 −$178 -100%
Texas Southern Tigers vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Eastern Washington Eagles vs. Sacramento State Hornets Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Colorado State Rams vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Jun 28 $41 −$70 -170%
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Alabama State Hornets vs. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
San Jose State Spartans vs. Boise State Broncos Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Long Beach State Beach Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Tarleton State Texans Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils Jun 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Milwaukee Panthers vs. Detroit Titans Jun 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers Jun 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Louisville Cardinals Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Texas Southern Tigers vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
SIUE Cougars vs. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Montana Grizzlies vs. Idaho State Bengals Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Jun 28 $48 −$48 -100%
Binghamton Bearcats vs. Bryant Bulldogs Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Clemson Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
IU Indy Jaguars vs. Wright State Raiders Jun 28 $59 −$59 -100%
Evansville Aces vs. Murray State Racers Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
AHL: Belleville Senators vs. Providence Bruins Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Morehead State Eagles vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
UT Martin Skyhawks vs. Little Rock Trojans Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Florida International Golden Panthers vs. Liberty Flames Jun 28 $66 −$66 -100%
Charleston Cougars vs. North Carolina A&T Aggies Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Kansas City Roos vs. North Dakota State Bison Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Jun 28 $77 −$77 -100%
Longwood Lancers vs. Presbyterian Blue Hose Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Georgetown Hoyas vs. Seton Hall Pirates Jun 28 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 47¢ $74 2h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 48¢ $102 2h
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Atlanta Dream 66¢ $1,010 2h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 61¢ $506 2h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 61¢ $506 2h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 60¢ $506 2h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 60¢ $506 2h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 60¢ $506 2h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) SELL Indiana Fever 52¢ $940 3h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) SELL Indiana Fever 53¢ $925 3h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) BUY Indiana Fever 55¢ $2,027 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 61¢ $486 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 AND Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego P SELL 49¢ $2,183 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $506 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $77 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $285 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $202 6h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 AND Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego P BUY 54¢ $2,500 6h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $505 6h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $506 6h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 51¢ $740 9h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 50¢ $1,015 9h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-4.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 56¢ $1,013 9h
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 61¢ $3,035 9h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $490 24h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $503 24h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 65¢ $1,516 24h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 55¢ $1,520 25h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 77¢ $497 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.01 · official $3.01 (match) · 3500 history records