Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0E
0x0eb5…cf53
sports · 61 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$1,497 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,491 · open −$21
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$59
Realized−$1,491
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)56 / 61
History coverage578d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 4 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days−$227
14 days−$91
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-13%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-95%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights 42¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 12 $500 −$372 -74%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 +$84 +83%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 08 $102 +$98 +97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $102 +$136 +134%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Mar 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 17 $292 −$292 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas to Mar 17 $275 −$275 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jul 01 $1,880 +$320 +17%
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30? Jul 01 $949 +$51 +5%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jul 01 $1,113 −$789 -71%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jul 01 $805 −$743 -92%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 24 $160 −$144 -90%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $26 −$21 -79%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jun 23 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 13 $200 +$22 +11%
NHL Playoffs: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers (To Advance) May 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs May 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Oilers vs. Golden Knights May 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs May 08 $40 +$55 +138%
Hurricanes vs. Capitals May 07 $90 −$90 -100%
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs May 06 $48 +$52 +108%
Nuggets vs. Thunder May 06 $2,000 +$88 +4%
Blues vs. Jets May 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Miami Grand Prix? May 06 $112 +$87 +78%
Avalanche vs. Stars May 04 $80 +$100 +125%
Jets vs. Blues May 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Wild vs. Golden Knights May 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Devils vs. Hurricanes May 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre lose his seat? May 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Liberals win majority in Canadian election? May 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Senators May 02 $80 +$83 +104%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 02 $801 +$199 +25%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI? Apr 29 $36 +$14 +39%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20? Jan 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Jan 27 $62 −$62 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Jan 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings Jan 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Jan 27 $76 −$76 -100%
Jones vs. Miocic Jan 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Commanders vs. Eagles Jan 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Jan 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Jan 22 $1,252 +$427 +34%
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner Jan 22 $181 +$83 +46%
Steelers vs. Browns Jan 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 26% −$146
politics 24% −$272
world 19% −$295
tech 15% −$660
other 7% −$598
crypto 5% +$640
culture 3% −$205
economics 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States vs. Paraguay end BUY 11¢ $51 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $128 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $51 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $101 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $102 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $102 13d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 150d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 151d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 47¢ $500 154d
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas to BUY Yes 55¢ $239 334d
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas to BUY Yes 55¢ $36 334d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 59¢ $90 343d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 58¢ $202 343d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 10¢ $62 352d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York SELL No 43¢ $15 355d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York SELL No 43¢ $6 355d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York SELL No 43¢ $304 355d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? SELL Yes 3¢ $16 355d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 356d
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? SELL No 13¢ $65 356d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? BUY Yes 32¢ $160 356d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 73¢ $366 357d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $441 357d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.2% -12.4% 43% 43% -32.9%
≤30d 8 +14.0% +3.1% 50% 50% -17.9%
≤90d 12 -24.0% -31.3% 33% 33% -53.9%
all 56 -26.6% -33.6% 38% 32% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 32% -19.6%
10% -40.0% 29% -27.3%
15% -45.8% 23% -34.3%
20% -51.1% 20% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.97 · official $58.97 (match) · 153 history records