Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0E 0x0eb4…d2dc world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$8
other 18% +$1
politics 10% −$1
finance 8% +$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 12 -4.9% -13.9% 25% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 14 -11.5% -19.9% 21% 0% -10.9%
all 28 -7.4% -16.2% 36% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 0% -10.7%
10% -24.2% 0% -19.2%
15% -31.6% 0% -27.0%
20% -38.3% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage448d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $72 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $39 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $36 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $40 −$5 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $4 −$2 -37%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $41 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $47 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $45 +$1 +1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 01 $1 $0 -3%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 11? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 10? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -49%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $15 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $21 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $36 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $40 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $40 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $37 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $35 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $38 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $39 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $22 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $14 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $36 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 69¢ $35 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $40 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $1 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $4 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $42 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $15 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $30 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records